Recent Developments

Protests have been cracked down on more violently, either by police or by government supporters. A handful of people have died over the past few days during protests in Tai'z and Aden. I expect Sana'a to remain stable, as the government is well entrenched and has brought in many of its supporters from the surrounding countryside. Quite a few people not aligned with the government still favor Saleh over the instability of fighting that could result from his ouster.

Things could end differently in Tai'z and Aden. Tai'z is a poorer city than Sana'a, and many people resent the current government's Sana'a-centric policies, which has forced many of the city's educated population to seek employment elsewhere, leaving behind those who cannot. Protests there have been more violent in nature. Aden is the center of the secessionist movement in the south, and the protesters demands might not stop at government reform, seeing this as a possible opportunity to gain greater autonomy or even independence.